The U.S. mango market is experiencing one of its tightest supply periods in recent years as Mexican production continues to fall well below historical levels. While mangos remain available, reduced production has limited promotional opportunities and pushed prices sharply higher.

“The situation is certainly challenging,” says Albert Perez of Continental Fresh. “Volumes from Mexico are down substantially compared to a normal year. This week alone, production is running about 44 percent below the same week last year, and those shortages are being felt throughout the entire supply chain.”

The smaller crop is largely the result of poor flowering and unfavorable weather conditions earlier in the season, particularly across western Mexico, where several key production regions have harvested significantly fewer boxes than expected.

Production centered in western Mexico
Harvest is currently concentrated in the western growing regions of Mexico, primarily Nayarit and southern Sinaloa. These areas traditionally supply the majority of the industry’s summer volume, but yields have been considerably lighter than normal.

At present, Mexico is the only significant origin supplying fresh mangos to the U.S. market, leaving buyers with few alternatives. As a result, growers and shippers are carefully managing inventories to fulfill existing retail and foodservice commitments rather than pursuing additional spot market opportunities.

© Continental Fresh

Seasonal transition in varieties
The varietal mix is also evolving. Tommy Atkins mangos, which dominated the early part of the Mexican season, are beginning to wind down, while Kent mangos are becoming increasingly abundant.

Ataulfo production has shifted to the Los Mochis growing region, the final major production area for the variety before the season concludes. Looking ahead, the first Keitt mangos are expected to begin shipping soon, marking the next stage of the Mexican harvest.

“We’re seeing the normal seasonal transition in varieties, but with considerably fewer total boxes than we would expect in a typical year,” Perez explains.

Tight supply drives prices higher
The reduced crop has kept the market exceptionally firm. FOB pricing out of Texas is currently ranging between $8.00 and $9.00 per box, significantly above what the industry would normally expect during the peak of the Mexican season.

“In a typical year, this is when retailers would be running aggressive promotions,” Perez says. “Instead, prices remain elevated because there simply isn’t enough fruit available to satisfy demand.”

While the stronger market has helped offset part of the financial impact of lower production, it has not fully compensated growers and shippers for the reduced volume. “When production drops this dramatically, there’s simply less fruit to sell,” he adds. “Higher prices certainly help, but they don’t make up for the boxes that were never harvested.”

Consumers continue to buy mangos
Despite higher prices, consumer demand has remained remarkably resilient. Although elevated retail prices can reduce impulse purchases and limit promotions, mangos continue to enjoy strong consumer loyalty thanks to their flavor, versatility, and growing year-round popularity.

“Consumers continue to seek out mangos because they love the fruit,” says Perez. “Higher prices may slow promotions, but they haven’t diminished consumers’ enthusiasm for mangos.”

Looking ahead, the industry is also keeping a close eye on weather patterns in South America. Forecasts calling for a potential Super El Niño could influence upcoming production in Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru later this year, creating additional uncertainty as the industry prepares for the offshore season. “After a challenging Mexican crop, everyone will be watching the offshore season closely. The hope is that we can dodge climatic challenges and help restore supplies to bring more balance back to the market.”

For more information:
Albert Perez
Continental Fresh
Tel: +1 (305) 860-9611
[email protected]
www.continentalfresh.com