The Peruvian mango season will begin in Piura during week 40 (the first week of October) and continue through week 2 of 2027. After Piura, the season will move to Lambayeque before concluding in Casma, where the harvest is expected to begin at the end of December (around week 52) and continue through at least weeks 9 or 10 of 2027. This season is shaping up to be one of the most challenging in recent years. According to Milton Calle, owner of Boom Fruit, which grows mangoes in Piura and Casma, the decline is due to the El Niño phenomenon and its direct impact on flowering.

© Boom Fruit

“I think we’re going to see a drop of about 60% in production, mainly due to El Niño,” says Calle, who estimates that Peru could end the season with 80,000 to 100,000 tons available for export, compared with last season’s 240,000 tons.

Piura, Lambayeque, and Casma: Three different situations

The producer stated that the impact will vary across producing regions. Piura, which accounts for 72% of the national volume, has a flowering rate of 10% to 15%. “A 15% flowering rate doesn’t mean the export volume will fall by 85%,” because a large proportion of the fruit normally destined for the local market and the frozen food industry is being redirected toward export.

© Boom Fruit

Lambayeque could be the most impacted region. Calle noted that if conditions resemble 1997, when January rains surpassed 900 millimeters, “production could be zero.’ In Casma, flowering in the upper regions is about 40–50%, whereas in the lower areas -where most production happens -it’s below 10%.

A global market that is also readjusting
The decrease in Peruvian supply coincides with a weaker season in Ecuador, where Calle reports it will drop from 14–15 million crates to only 3–4 million. Meanwhile, Brazil’s production remains more stable and predictable, with peaks between October and mid-December, primarily aimed at the European market.

© Boom Fruit

As a result, Calle stated, Ecuador and Peru will redirect a significant share of fruit to the US market starting November, while Brazil will supply Europe. “It would be extremely difficult for Peruvian exporters to direct their production toward Europe at that time because Europe is already supplied by Brazil.”

An oversized industry
Calle provides a structural analysis beyond the current climate context: the country’s production potential (around 800,000 tons) far exceeds the market’s absorption capacity, estimated at about 500,000 tons. “We would already have a surplus of around 300,000 tons,” he states, explaining why moderate declines in flowering do not always translate into actual shortages.

© Boom Fruit

The producer emphasized the importance of transparency when sharing information with destination markets, especially after recent supply imbalances in Mexico caused prices in the United States to drop sharply. According to Calle, accurately communicating the actual state of flowering, even if it initially causes mistrust, is key to enabling the supply chain to plan ahead.

For more information:
Milton Calle
Boom Fruit
Peru
Tel: +51 906 900 447