This week, growers and shippers of Mexican grapes are undergoing assessments of their crops following Sunday’s rains which had a variety of impacts in the country. “In Guaymas and La Costa, there was very little rain. In Pesqueira, our ranch had 4.4 mm of rain, and in Caborca, depending on where it is, there was between 15-30 mm of rain,” says Luis Felipe Montes of Terramara Fresh.

With assessments taking place on the ranches and assessments in the early stages, one concern is for Flame grapes, a variety that is sensitive to rain. “Right now, growers are saying the damage could be within 50-70 percent of Flame grapes,” says Montes, adding that as little as 5 mm. of rain could seriously impact the variety’s crop. Estimates were that this season, 2.2 million boxes of Flames would be shipped out of Caborca, though until Friday, less than 100,000 boxes were harvested.

However, there are also questions about how newer varieties such as early Sweets–which growers were already saying are at least 20 percent below production–Timpsons, Ivory, Candy Snaps, and more, will react to the rain. “The Sweet Globes are sensible with the rain but before Sunday, they had very low Brix and needed 10-12 more days to harvest. On Flames, we know there will be damage because we have a lot of experience around the world. So with these other varieties, we need to wait a bit to find out,” he says.

Mexican volume this month
This comes ahead of the serious volume of the Mexican grape season–Montes says Terramara Fresh estimates that 10 percent of its production is in May while the remaining 90 percent is in June.

^{Right now, growers are saying the damage could be within 50-70 percent of Flame grapes (left) while Sweet Globes (right) react better to rain than other grape varieties do.}

Meanwhile, that tight supply on early green grapes impacted the market on greens which was tight, though ads are taking place this month for green grapes. “It is red grapes that are my big concern,” he says. “Reds were okay before the rains but now will be tight. Greens were tight in the beginning, but in June, we will have enough to satisfy the market.”

Before the rains, it was already speculated that there would be a tighter grape supply out of Mexico this season. Last year for example, Sonora crossed 19.5 million boxes of grapes to the U.S. Before the rains, some importers said Mexico would not have more than 18 million boxes and some are now speculating it could be sitting at no more than 15 million boxes.

State of Mexican market
On top of all of this, recently, the Mexican Peso has also been in better shape than the U.S. dollar. “So this makes the domestic market more attractive for some growers, especially for some Flames that you don’t know if they will cross or not,” says Montes.

^{Before the rains, it was already speculated that there would be a tighter grape supply out of Mexico this season.}

So how will pricing develop? Demand for grapes is strong right now. “I think the market will be very strong for the Mexican season and I think the early California season will also see a very strong market with good prices,” he says, adding that while California’s volume tends to start in the last week of July, Mexican grapes ship throughout June and July.

For more information:
Luis Felipe Montes
Terramara Fresh
[email protected]
https://terramarafresh.amfresh.com/