EU potato crop forecast below 40 million MT as prices rise

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The EU processed potato sector is facing lower supply for the 2026/27 season following reduced plantings, heatwaves, and drought conditions across key growing regions. World Potato Markets forecasts the 2026 crop at below 40 million MT for the first time, around 15 million MT below last year.

The expected decline follows oversupply during the 2025/26 season. Plantings were reduced ahead of the new campaign as the market sought to rebalance supply. Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Poland all recorded year-on-year reductions in planted area. Five heatwaves in recent months and subsequent drought conditions are expected to further restrict crop volumes.

© Mintec/Expana

The supply outlook comes as European processors record increased exports to several markets. According to Trade Data Monitor, EU processed potato exports to South America increased 45.1% year on year in June, led by Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. Exports to the Middle East rose 23%, while shipments to Africa increased 26.8%. Asia remained lower, with 12-month volumes down 23% as competition from regional suppliers increased.

Sources suggest that North American trade conditions have also affected EU export activity. U.S. tariff policies and trade uncertainty have disrupted supply chains, while Canadian frozen fry exports could face tariffs of up to 50% entering the U.S. Market sources suggest this has contributed to buyers in the Middle East and other markets sourcing EU product.

Concerns over the 2026 crop have also affected processing potato prices. Expana Benchmark Prices for Fontane processing potatoes EXW Belgium increased from €10/MT in late July 2026 to €150/MT at the start of August.

Trade is currently reported to be slow, with some growers delaying harvest in anticipation of rainfall. Rain is forecast for the coming week, although market participants remain uncertain about its potential impact on yields and tuber size. Prices remained at €150/MT on August 25 as the market awaited further indications of crop availability.

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Source: The Plantations International Agroforestry Group of Companies