The Moroccan avocado export campaign came to a late end this year, and the reason is none other than a problem the industry can’t seem to shake off just yet: withholding harvests in the expectation of better prices, in what looks like a tug-of-war between growers and exporters. The season’s success has been mixed, with record export volumes but falling prices, and it seems that the industry players can only achieve two corners of the perfect triangle in the same season: good weather, good volumes, or good prices.

In the 2022/2023 season, prices were at their highest for Moroccan growers and exporters, making Moroccan avocados the second most expensive in the world. The following season, 2023/2024, prices continued their upward trend, but the Bernard storm accompanied by other climatic phenomena such as Chergui (hot, dry winds) led to the loss of over 10% of national production. Export volumes nevertheless reached an all-time high of 60,000 tonnes. This season (2024/2025), production and export records were beaten by more than 85%, but prices fell by 20%.

A new all-time record: over 100 thousand tonnes of avocados exported in 2024/2025
For Abdellah Elyamlahi, President of the Moroccan Avocado Association, representing exporters, the season remains memorable: “The 2024/2025 season is the first time we have reached the 100-110 thousand tonnes mark in export volumes, for a production of around 130,000 tons. This is the second year in a row that Moroccan producers have achieved an all-time production record. Weather conditions were excellent, with no excessive heat or storms, leading to good flowering and fruit development. In terms of production, everything went smoothly.”

This season, according to the exporters’ representative, demand was unsurprisingly dominated by the three main historical markets for Moroccan avocados, namely, in order of volume, the Netherlands, Spain, and France. He adds: “There was also strong demand from Germany, Italy, Russia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine and Poland. We are seeing changes in the market. For example, Russian buyers used to import the green-skinned variety, and this year they’ve turned to the Hass variety in small sizes. New markets are also developing this season, such as Turkey and Scandinavian countries. The European Union’s market as a whole remains our most important destination, where we have an edge on the competition, especially in the preferred sizes there, 16, 18 and 20.”

Overproduction leads to falling prices
The international market absorbed this sharp variation in production without any difficulty, more or less. Elyamlahi says: “Demand was very good for most of the season, despite strong competition. This means that the market has room for our fruits. However, prices were on average 20-21% lower than the previous season. Prices were the lowest of the season in December, then improved in January and again in March. In addition to the significant increase in Moroccan production and internal competition pushing down prices, there was also a lot of fruit from Peru, Colombia, and Israel, and it’s normal for prices to fall. I would say that Moroccan avocado prices are stabilizing after a period of strong growth.”

Since avocados can be stored on trees, many Moroccan growers abstain from harvesting in daily expectation of better prices. As a result, at the end of January, three months into the season, half the season’s volume was still on the trees. Elyamlahi comments: “This is a practice that many players in the sector deplore. It discredits Moroccan origin, disrupts supply, and causes prices to fluctuate constantly. But things are improving from one season to the next, as the sector, still in its early years in Morocco, gains in experience and maturity. This season, the cumulative delay in harvests was only two weeks, and growers have accelerated harvesting since the end of January when prices improved.”

Elyamlahi adds, “The surface area has increased from 6,000 hectares in 2020 to 12,000 hectares in 2025, and will eventually reach 15,000 hectares within two years. In addition to the extra acreage, we expect yields to increase from the current average of 10 tonnes per hectare (while some growers achieve a yield of 17-24 tonnes) to 15-20 tonnes per hectare. After that, we’ll be in the business of improving quality and yields rather than massively increasing volumes. On the other hand, world demand for avocados is growing by 4.85% a year, and will continue to grow linearly, if not exponentially, making the price drop temporary.”

“Today, more than ever, we need more concerted action within the industry”
The market for Moroccan avocados, still limited geographically, is barely keeping pace with a great boom in production. According to Elyamlahi, now is the time to capitalize on the sector’s achievements and gain in professionalism and integration. He explains: “The industry needs better organization, in terms of synergy and centralization of data and decisions. We need, for example, to break with practices such as speculation and harvest abstention, and reach out to each other as internal competitors to improve farming practices and gain together in quality. Moreover, this is a crucial time to open up new markets.”

According to Elyamlahi, the Moroccan avocado landscape currently comprises a little over two hundred growers, half of whom have large acreages (over 5 hectares), located mainly in the Tafilalet-Larache region on the country’s north-west Atlantic coast. As for exporters, there are no more than twenty companies, half of which have their own production. While the majority of growers are members of the Gharb Avocado Growers Association, chaired by Abdelkarim Alaoui, most of exporters are organized in the Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA). Until now, the sector has not had an organization covering the entire value chain, nor an interprofession, and has not met for an annual event like their counterparts at the Moroccan Tomato Conference. Yet the two sectors have similar sales figures.

The exporter adds: “Today, more than ever, we need more concerted action within the industry. We’re already pleased to see that there has been a lot of consistency and coherence this season, and a less distrustful relationship between growers and exporters. For example, prices have remained stable for four months this season, which has never happened before. We have been working on the establishment of an interprofession, which will be launched next season and will be our interlocutor with the government. It will also be the privileged framework for consultation and knowledge transfer between the players in the sector, in order to improve quality across all growers; and provide our best means of tackling, in unison, the issues that concern us in terms of both production and marketing. We are also working on the forthcoming launch of an annual gathering of industry players at national and global levels, which will enable us to get closer to our customers and our ecosystem. The fruits of all these efforts will see the light of day very soon, hopefully next season.”

Promising Prospects for 2030
One major market, if opened, could be a game changer for Moroccan avocado exporters: the United States. The opportunity is particularly attractive amid the trade war in which Mexico, while having a stranglehold on avocado exports to the United States, is targeted by the Trump administration. Morocco is on the other hand only affected by a tariff rate of 10% (even though trade between the two countries is governed by a free-trade agreement). Elyamlahi says: “We have been in the process of concluding a phytosanitary agreement to open up the American market for two years now. I would say that the first exports to the United States will take place next season, or by 2027 at the latest.”

“Also in terms of geographic expansion of our markets, we’re counting on other important destinations, such as Canada, and Arab countries like Jordan and Saudi Arabia, even if competition will be strong with East African origins. The Scandinavian countries are also a very important market where the potential of Moroccan exporters is under-exploited,” Elyamlahi continues.

The development of these new markets is crucial if exporters are to reverse the downward trend in prices, as the commercial window for Moroccan avocados is unlikely to change. In recent years, growers have tried to extend the season with the Lamb Hass and Maluma varieties, without success. “The Hass variety is the most popular and will continue to dominate production, at 90% of volumes. Seasonality will therefore remain the same in the foreseeable future. On the other hand, we will need new destinations for all our production. Volumes are expected to increase to 150,000 tonnes next season and 200,000 tonnes by 2030, which is the saturation point we anticipate.”

“The challenge is above all to improve quality. Today, we’re at the lower tolerance limits of Class 1, and we need to push the limits. We’re talking here about the aesthetic aspect of the fruit, such as eliminating black spots or stains on avocados. This involves small, ingenious but effective gestures, such as choosing the right time of the day to harvest, as well as more complicated agricultural and logistical choices, such as disease treatment or post-harvest handling. We want this knowledge to be transferred and generalized to all growers, including small-scale growers, and not be a field of internal competition, for the sake of the origin as whole,” Elyamlahi concludes.

This article was previously published in Primeur May 2025. Click here for the link to the entire edition

For more information:
Abdellah Elyamlahi
Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA)
Tel: +212 678732391
Email: [email protected]