As California enters the back end of its table grape season, estimates are that there are between 25 to 30 million cases left to ship. “The supply is going quicker than we anticipated,” says Stephen Harmer of Grapeman Farms.

This is particularly so on the green grape market which is increasingly tight. “We’ll see possibly a 20 to 30 percent reduction in what we were anticipating,” he says, noting that price points are indicative of the tight supply. “The USDA is calling an Autumn King mostly around $30.95 and the reds are still in the $20-$24 range.”

Right now from California, the majority of the industry is moving Autumn King grapes though some suppliers have Autumncrisp® and potentially a bit of Great Green™ or Sweet Globe™.

The company has seen an average of 1,100-1,300 cases per acre–normally it would see more like 1,600-1,700 per acre. “We’ll be able to run red grapes through December but we’ll see a slight gap in green grapes as we transition into Peruvian arrivals,” says Harmer, noting it plans to use California supply as long as it can before switching over to Peruvian grapes.

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Shipments from Peru
Meanwhile Peru began shipping grapes two to three weeks ago. Normal arrival volume is expected to be reached by the middle of December meaning Thanksgiving until about December 15th should see a lighter supply of table grapes generally.

As for the crops in Peru, northern Peru, particularly Piura, is about one to two weeks late on average which means arrivals in the U.S. will also be one to two weeks later. “For some of the greens, their timing was a bit off in pruning, which was in relation to drought issues they’ve experienced,” says Harmer. That later pruning led to a slower accumulation of Brix levels.

However, a large crop overall is expected from Peru. “They’re up about four to five percent. I believe we’ll have more fruit in the U.S. than last year for several reasons. We expect the U.S. market to be flush with fruit by the middle of January,” he says, noting that the first arrivals in terms of green varieties will be Sweeties, Sweet Globes and Autumn Crisp.

As for demand for table grapes, this season has been somewhat lackluster for most of the season in comparison to previous years as it has been with numerous produce commodities. “Retail promotions for the first half of the season were behind last year. In the last several weeks, retail promotions have increased with more stores promoting than last year at this time and demand has picked up,” says Harmer. “Demand is much better, but it’s hard to tell if it’s a result of movement at the store or the existing California supply tightening. I don’t want to speak for other shippers but I believe if you asked anybody about demand for the totality of the California season, most would say they’re dissatisfied.”

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Prices climbing into December
All of this means a stronger market may be expected through November and December. “We’ll continue to see a steady increase on pricing as we approach the import season,” he notes.

A few weeks ago, the majority of green grapes were being sold in the $18 to $24 range and this week that’s expected to move towards the $26 to $30 range, depending on the size, condition and age of the fruit.

“While green grape pricing is strengthening consistently, red grapes have remained stable as the supply is more available,” says Harmer. Some shippers with older inventory are selling between $16-$18, though the majority of the industry is pricing between $20-$26.95, with higher end varieties such as Jack Salute possibly reaching $28, Allison between $22-$24 range and any remaining Scarlet Royals in the $18-$20 range. “We’re hoping retailers continue promoting and don’t let the shortfalls of November and December take away from the rest of the import season. There is going to be plenty of fruit.”

For more information:
Stephen Harmer
Grapeman Farms
Tel: +1 (661) 392-1719
https://grapeman.com/